Accurate typhoon intensity forecasts using a non-iterative spatiotemporal transformer model

arXiv:2509.21349v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity – particularly during periods of rapid intensification and rapid weakening – remains a challenge for operational meteorology, with high-stakes implications for disaster preparedness and infrastructure resilience. Recent advances in machine learning have yielded notable progress in TC prediction; however, most existing systems provide forecasts that degrade rapidly in extreme regimes and lack long-range consistency. Here we introduce TIFNet, a transformer-based forecasting model that generates non-iterative, 5-day intensity trajectories by integrating high-resolution global forecasts with a historical-evolution fusion mechanism. Trained on reanalysis data and fine-tuned with operational data, TIFNet consistently outperforms operational numerical models across all forecast horizons, delivering robust improvements across weak, strong, and super typhoon categories. In rapid intensity change regimes – long regarded as the most difficult to forecast – TIFNet reduces forecast error by 29-43% relative to current operational baselines. These results represent a substantial advance in artificial-intelligence-based TC intensity forecasting, especially under extreme conditions where traditional models consistently underperform.