City-level energy and emission assessment of over 20 million electric vehicle registrations in China

arXiv:2511.20742v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: China, the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) market, plays a pivotal role in global transport decarbonization. We present the first high-resolution assessment of EV low-carbon development across 295 cities, using over 20 million registrations of 586 models from 2022-2024, and projects transition pathways to 2035. Real-world data reveal that EVs are 30.9212.8 megajoules per 100 kilometers more energy-efficient than internal combustion vehicles, yet carbon intensity varies widely-from 18.2 to 270.4 gCO2/kilometer across provinces. Despite rapid electrification, gasoline still accounts for 44% of EV energy use, underscoring the limited electrification of hybrids. Scenario projections suggest emissions will peak around 2030 at 21.1-30.9 MtCO2, declining by 2035 with solid-state battery deployment and stronger policies. These findings establish an empirical foundation for accurate emission accounting, emphasize the need to reduce regional disparities, and offer globally relevant insights to accelerate deep-decarbonization in transport.