Energies, Vol. 19, Pages 29: Ultra-Short-Term Multi-Step Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Based on Similarity-Based Daily Clustering

Energies, Vol. 19, Pages 29: Ultra-Short-Term Multi-Step Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Based on Similarity-Based Daily Clustering

Energies doi: 10.3390/en19010029

Authors:
Yongcheng Jin
Zhichao Sun
Dongliang Lv
Weicheng Gao
Fengze Liu
Qinghua Yu

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is inherently intermittent and volatile, complicating power system operation and control. Accurate forecasting is crucial for proactive grid responses and optimal energy resource scheduling. This study proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model that achieves high-precision PV power forecasting by integrating similar-day clustering, generating extreme weather samples, and optimizing the Bidirectional Temporal Convolutional Network (BiTCN) and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) model via the Animated Oat Optimization (AOO) algorithm. The proposed method outperforms other models in the three evaluation metrics of mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The innovations lie in the integration of similar-day clustering with deep learning and the application of AOO for hyperparameter optimization, which significantly enhances forecasting accuracy and robustness.