Energies, Vol. 19, Pages 1340: Forecasting the Development of Renewable Energy Sources in Poland in the Context of Energy Policy of the European Union

Energies, Vol. 19, Pages 1340: Forecasting the Development of Renewable Energy Sources in Poland in the Context of Energy Policy of the European Union

Energies doi: 10.3390/en19051340

Authors:
Piotr Bórawski
Rafał Wyszomierski
Aneta Bełdycka-Bórawska
Mariola Grzybowska-Brzezińska
Rafał Warżała

Renewable energy sources (RES) will be the main source of energy in the future. The main goal of this study was to analyze and elaborate a prognosis for the development of renewable energy sources in Poland. Specific objectives included: evaluation of the prognosis developed as part of Poland’s energy policy (PEP), development of our own forecast of the share of renewable energy sources, and comparison of the forecast developed for Poland’s energy policy with our own forecast. We have also elaborated a hypothesis that the prognosis for the development of renewable energy sources for Poland prepared by PEP, and our own prognosis based on Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) models, are both promising and confirm the development of the renewable energy sector in the future. We used the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test as well as ARIMA models. Moreover, we compared own RES prognosis with prognoses proposed by the European Union. Cumulative capital expenditures from 2021 to 2040, including financing costs, will amount to PLN 300 billion, of which PLN 195 billion go towards renewable energy sources alone. Photovoltaics (PV) will account for the largest share of energy production, reaching 16 GW of achievable capacity, followed by onshore wind farms with 9.7 GW. Solid biomass accounts for the largest share of renewable energy consumption in heating and cooling, although its share is gradually decreasing from 98.6% in 2005 to a projected 75% in 2040. Heat pumps, which had no share in 2005, are expected to increase their share to a projected 11.8% in 2040. Solar technology has also increased from 0% in 2005 to a projected 5.6% in 2040. The share of renewable energy in this energy sector is increasing from 22.1% in 2020 to 31.8% in 2030 and 39.7% in 2040. The prognosis elaborated by PEP for 2025–2040 are very optimistic and the prognosis elaborated based on ARIMA models is also promising. Both prognoses predict the development of RES in the future and the transformation of the energy sector in Poland.