arXiv:2603.18319v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) threaten marine ecosystems and significantly impact weather patterns. In the Arabian Sea, summer MHWs are of particular concern due to their potential impacts on the Indian summer monsoon, a lifeline for nearly a billion people. However, the drivers of these MHWs and their influence on atmospheric circulation and monsoon rainfall remain poorly understood. Using satellite observations, reanalysis datasets, and numerical model experiments, we investigate the key drivers of MHW events and assess their impacts. When SST warming trends are retained, the eastern and northern Arabian Sea emerge as MHW hotspots, showing rapid increases during 1982-2023, largely due to anthropogenic warming. On detrending the SSTs to remove the influence of anthropogenic warming on individual MHWs, we find that most MHWs are short-lived (lasting