Energies, Vol. 18, Pages 4433: Levelized Cost of Electricity Prediction and End-User Price Deduction Model for Power Systems with High Renewable Energy Penetration

Energies, Vol. 18, Pages 4433: Levelized Cost of Electricity Prediction and End-User Price Deduction Model for Power Systems with High Renewable Energy Penetration

Energies doi: 10.3390/en18164433

Authors:
Wenqin Song
Zhuxiu Wang
Xu Yan
Xumin Liu
Zhongfu Tan
Yuan Feng

With the rapid growth in the scale of high-percentage new energy generation, the structure of the new power system is changing. Influenced by the uncertainty and zero marginal cost characteristics of new energy, the security cost required by the power system under the high proportion of new energy access has increased dramatically. How to accurately measure the cost of the power system and assess the trend of the system cost changes and the impact on its end-user price has become critical. Accordingly, this paper creatively proposes a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) prediction and end-user price deduction model for power systems with high renewable energy penetration. Firstly, the power system factor cost prediction model is constructed from the three dimensions of power-side, grid-side, and system operation cost. Secondly, a levelized cost of electricity prediction model is constructed based on the above model. Again, based on the analysis of the end-user price composition, the end-user price deduction model is proposed. Finally, the data of Gansu Province is selected for example analysis, and the results show that, in 2060, the power LCOE will be 0.064 USD/kWh, the system LCOE will be 0.103 USD/kWh, and the end-user price will rise to 0.1 USD/kWh.