Energies, Vol. 18, Pages 4571: A Transformer-Based Hybrid Neural Network Integrating Multiresolution Turbulence Intensity and Independent Modeling of Multiple Meteorological Features for Wind Speed Forecasting
Energies doi: 10.3390/en18174571
Authors:
Hongbin Liu
Ziyan Wang
Yizhuo Liu
Jie Zhou
Chen Chen
Haoyuan Ma
Xi Huang
Hongqing Wang
Xiaodong Ji
Aiming at the nonlinear, nonstationary, and multiscale fluctuation characteristics of wind speed series, this study proposes a wind speed-forecasting framework that integrates multi-resolution turbulence intensity features and a Transformer-based hybrid neural network. Firstly, based on multi-resolution turbulence intensity and stationary wavelet transform (SWT), the original wind speed series is decomposed into eight pairs of mean wind speeds and turbulence intensities at different time scales, which are then modeled and predicted in parallel using eight independent LSTM sub-models. Unlike traditional methods treating meteorological variables such as air pressure, temperature, and wind direction as static input features, WaveNet, LSTM, and TCN neural networks are innovatively adopted here to independently model and forecast these meteorological series, thoroughly capturing their dynamic influences on wind speed. Finally, a Transformer-based self-attention mechanism dynamically integrates multiple outputs from the four sub-models to generate final wind speed predictions. Experimental results averaged over three datasets demonstrate superior accuracy and robustness, with MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R2 values around 0.65, 0.87, 23.24%, and 0.92, respectively, for a 6 h forecast horizon. Moreover, the proposed framework consistently outperforms all baselines across four categories of comparative experiments, showing strong potential for practical applications in wind power dispatching.