Energies, Vol. 18, Pages 4821: Stochastic Biomechanical Modeling of Human-Powered Electricity Generation: A Comprehensive Framework with Advanced Monte Carlo Uncertainty Quantification

Energies, Vol. 18, Pages 4821: Stochastic Biomechanical Modeling of Human-Powered Electricity Generation: A Comprehensive Framework with Advanced Monte Carlo Uncertainty Quantification

Energies doi: 10.3390/en18184821

Authors:
Qirui Ding
Weicheng Cui

Human-powered electricity generation (HPEG) systems offer promising sustainable energy solutions, yet existing deterministic models fail to capture the inherent variability in human biomechanical performance. This study develops a comprehensive stochastic framework integrating advanced Monte Carlo uncertainty quantification with multi-component fatigue modeling and Pareto optimization. The framework incorporates physiological parameter vectors, kinematic variables, and environmental factors through multivariate distributions, addressing the complex stochastic nature of human power generation. A novel multi-component efficiency function integrates biomechanical, coordination, fatigue, thermal, and adaptation effects, while advanced fatigue dynamics distinguish between peripheral muscular, central neural, and substrate depletion mechanisms. Experimental validation (623 trials, 7 participants) demonstrates RMSE of 3.52 W and CCC of 0.996. Monte Carlo analysis reveals mean power output of 97.6 ± 37.4 W (95% CI: 48.4–174.9 W) with substantial inter-participant variability (CV = 37.6%). Pareto optimization identifies 19 non-dominated solutions across force-cadence space, with maximum power configuration achieving 175.5 W at 332.7 N and 110.4 rpm. This paradigm shift provides essential foundations for next-generation HPEG implementations across emergency response, off-grid communities, and sustainable infrastructure applications. The framework thus delivers dual contributions: advancing stochastic uncertainty quantification methodologies for complex biomechanical systems while enabling resilient decentralized energy solutions critical for sustainable development and climate adaptation strategies.