arXiv:2510.21873v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Africa holds the world’s highest solar irradiance yet has 6% from radiation enhancement, while North Africa declined by 0.5% as extreme heat (+2 degree Celsius) overwhelmed radiation benefits. Critically, stability analysis using the coefficient of variation (CV) reveals that high-irradiance subtropical zones are highly variable (CV=0.4), in contrast to stable equatorial regions (CV=0.1), challenging the assumption that resource abundance ensures reliability. These findings reframe Africa’s solar strategy: North Africa requires prioritizing heat-resilient technology over capacity maximization; subtropical zones demand grid-storage co-investment; and East Africa presents globally competitive opportunities for rapid, stable deployment. By resolving spatiotemporal heterogeneities and quantifying climate-driver contributions, our analysis provides an actionable framework for climate-resilient solar deployment, critical for Africa’s energy transition and climate mitigation.