Extending Integrated Assessment Model scenarios until 2150 using an emulation approach

arXiv:2512.06026v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Whereas there is growing interest in exploring longer-term climate, including tipping elements, beyond 2100, most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) generate emissions scenarios only till 2100. Here we propose a framework to extend scenarios until 2150 using an emulator of IAMs. Our framework offers a potential interim solution for developing very long-term scenarios, such as the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), circumventing the challenges of fully simulating IAMs beyond 2100.