Energies, Vol. 18, Pages 6478: Scenario-Based Spatial Assessment of Solar and Wind Energy Potential in Pakistan Using FUCOM–OWA Integration

Energies, Vol. 18, Pages 6478: Scenario-Based Spatial Assessment of Solar and Wind Energy Potential in Pakistan Using FUCOM–OWA Integration

Energies doi: 10.3390/en18246478

Authors:
Muhammad Ateeq
Qinhuo Liu
Xiaozhou Xin
Tianci Li
Raza Ahmed
Zahid Ur Rahman
Muhammad Irfan

With the growing demand for energy and the limitations of fossil fuel resources, the utilization of renewable energy sources has become a vital and sustainable solution. However, identifying optimal locations for the development of these resources remains a major challenge in energy planning. Accurate spatial potential assessment can play a critical role in enhancing efficiency and reducing production costs. This study aims to present a scenario-based framework for assessing solar and wind energy potential in Pakistan. A total of 19 spatial criteria were used, categorized into evaluation and constraint factors. The full consistency method (FUCOM) was applied to weight the criteria, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method was employed to model various potential scenarios. The results revealed that global horizontal irradiation (GHI) and proximity to transmission lines are the most significant factors for solar energy, whereas wind speed and wind power density are crucial for wind energy potential. Scenario analysis indicated that, under the AND scenario, the area with very high potential for solar and wind energy is 8005.72 km2 and 968.98 km2, respectively. These values increase to 63,607.52 km2 and 16,288.32 km2 under the OR scenario. The spatial agreement map for the simultaneous development of solar and wind energy showed an overlap of 461.42 km2 in the AND scenario and 11,836 km2 in the OR scenario. These findings highlight the importance of scenario-based decision-making approaches and accurate spatial evaluations in the development of multiple renewable energy plant sites under various investment and policy conditions. Moreover, the proposed framework can serve as a practical model for simulating and assessing renewable energy development potential in other regions of the world.