Energies, Vol. 18, Pages 6479: Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Physics-Guided Fusion and Distribution Constraints
Energies doi: 10.3390/en18246479
Authors:
Wenbin Zheng
Jiaojiao Yin
Zhiwei Wang
Huijie Sun
Letian Bai
Accurate wind power prediction is of great significance for grid stability and renewable energy integration. Addressing the challenge of effectively integrating physical mechanisms with data-driven methods in wind power prediction, this paper innovatively proposes a two-stage deep learning prediction framework incorporating physics-guided fusion and distribution constraints, aiming to improve the prediction accuracy and physical authenticity of individual wind turbines. In the first stage, we construct a baseline model based on multi-branch multilayer perceptrons (MLP) that eschews traditional attempts to accurately reconstruct complex three-dimensional spatiotemporal wind fields, instead directly learning the power conversion characteristics of wind turbines under specific meteorological conditions from historical operational data, namely the power coefficient (Cp). This data-driven Cp fitting method provides a physically interpretable and robust benchmark for power prediction. In the second stage, targeting the prediction residuals from the baseline model, we design a bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) for refined correction. The core innovation of this stage lies in introducing Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) as a regularization term to constrain the predicted wind speed-power joint probability distribution. This constraint enforces the model-generated power predictions to remain statistically consistent with historical real data distributions, effectively preventing the model from producing predictions that deviate from physical reality, significantly enhancing the model’s generalization capability and reliability. Experimental results demonstrate that compared to traditional methods, the proposed method achieves significant improvements in Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error, and other metrics, validating the effectiveness of physical constraints in improving prediction accuracy.