Energies, Vol. 19, Pages 173: Techno-Enviro-Economic Assessment of Long-Term Strategic Capacity Expansion for Dubai’s Clean Energy Future Using PLEXOS

Energies, Vol. 19, Pages 173: Techno-Enviro-Economic Assessment of Long-Term Strategic Capacity Expansion for Dubai’s Clean Energy Future Using PLEXOS

Energies doi: 10.3390/en19010173

Authors:
Ahmed Yousry
Mutasim Nour

With global energy systems shifting toward sustainable solutions, Dubai faces the challenge of meeting rising energy needs while minimizing environmental impacts. This study explores long-term (LT) strategic planning for Dubai’s power sector through a techno-environmental–economic lens. Using PLEXOS® modelling software (Version 9.20.0001) and official data from Dubai’s main utility provider, a comprehensive model examines medium- and LT energy pathways. The analysis identifies solar photovoltaic (PV) technology as central to achieving Dubai’s goal of 100% clean energy by 2050. It also highlights the need to cut emissions from natural gas (NG) infrastructure, targeting a goal of 14.5% retirement of NG energy generation capacities by the mid-century. Achieving zero-emission goals will require complementary technologies such as carbon capture (CC), nuclear energy, and energy storage as part of a broader decarbonization strategy. This study further assesses the economic effects of climate policy, showing that moderate carbon pricing could increase the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) by an average of 6% across the forecast horizon. These findings offer valuable guidance for decision-makers and stakeholders, particularly the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA), in advancing a carbon-neutral energy system. By 2050, Dubai’s total installed generation capacity is projected to reach 53.3 GW, reflecting the scale of transformation needed to meet its clean energy ambitions.