Energies, Vol. 19, Pages 318: Integration of Machine-Learning Weather Forecasts into Photovoltaic Power Plant Modeling: Analysis of Forecast Accuracy and Energy Output Impact
Energies doi: 10.3390/en19020318
Authors:
Hamza Feza Carlak
Kira Karabanova
Accurate forecasting of meteorological parameters is essential for the reliable operation and performance optimization of photovoltaic (PV) power plants. Among these parameters, ambient temperature and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) have the most direct impact on PV output. This study investigates the integration of machine-learning-based (ML) weather forecasts into PV energy modeling and quantifies how forecast accuracy propagates into PV generation estimation errors. Three commonly used ML algorithms—Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forest (RF)—were developed and compared. Antalya (Turkey), representing a Mediterranean climate zone, was selected as the case study location. High-resolution meteorological data from 2018–2023 were used to train and evaluate the forecasting models for prediction horizons from 1 to 10 days. Model performance was assessed using root mean square error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results indicate that RF provides the highest accuracy for temperature prediction, while ANN demonstrates superior performance for GHI forecasting. The generated forecasts were incorporated into a PV power output simulation using the PVLib library. The analysis reveals that inaccuracies in GHI forecasts have the largest impact on PV energy estimation, whereas temperature forecast errors contribute significantly less. Overall, the study demonstrates the practical benefits of integrating ML-based meteorological forecasting with PV performance modeling and provides guidance on selecting suitable forecasting techniques for renewable energy system planning and optimization.