arXiv:2601.15535v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: The global demand for green hydrogen and its derivatives is growing rapidly as a cornerstone for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors. Morocco, endowed with abundant solar and wind resources, ambitions to capture up to 4% of the global PtX market by 2030, positioning itself as a strategic partner for Europe’s energy transition. Yet, uncertainty persists regarding European demand trajectories, infrastructure readiness, and investment risks. This study evaluates Morocco’s hydrogen transition through 2035 using a sector-coupled capacity expansion model. We compare industry reallocation and hydrogen export-oriented scenarios, assessing their impacts under interannual weather variability and financial sensitivities. Both scenarios require a tripling of current renewable and electrolyzer capacities, with hydrogen demand reaching approximately up to 38 TWh by 2035. Lower financing costs (WACC) have a greater effect on system costs and competitiveness than stricter CO2 constraints or weather variability. The trade- off between domestic energy security and export competitiveness is pronounced, but both pathways are technically feasible and aligned with Morocco’s strategic energy goals. These findings provide evidence-based guidance for policymakers to balance Morocco’s domestic and export ambitions in the evolving hydrogen market.