Energies, Vol. 19, Pages 994: A Multi-Scale Offshore Wind Power Forecasting Model Based on Data Decomposition, Intelligent Optimization Algorithms, and Multi-Modal Fusion
Energies doi: 10.3390/en19040994
Authors:
Kang Liu
Yuan Sun
Pengyu Han
To accurately characterize the complex coupling and nonlinear interactions between meteorological and oceanic variables in offshore wind power scenarios, this study proposes a novel forecasting model based on a “multi-scale fusion-decomposition-reconstruction-optimization-prediction” framework. This model integrates Variational Modal Decomposition (VMD) with the feature-interaction Informer framework, employing an enhanced Honey Badger Algorithm (HBA) for the collaborative optimization of their key parameters. The enhanced HBA integrates cubic chaotic mapping, random perturbation strategy, elite tangent search, and differential mutation operations to strengthen its global optimization capability and convergence efficiency. The model construction process proceeds as follows: First, sample entropy (SE) is applied to evaluate the entropy values and reconstruct sequences of the modal components obtained from VMD. Subsequently, the dynamic adjustment of the maximum information coefficient (DE-MIC) is employed to select key input variables from multi-source features. Subsequently, the feature interaction-probabilistic sparse attention mechanism (FI-ProbSparse-AM) unique to the feature interaction-based Informer is employed to construct an attention architecture capable of explicitly modeling dependencies among multidimensional variables, thereby effectively capturing the spatiotemporal latent correlations between wind power output and multi-source features. Experiments based on real offshore wind farm data demonstrate that the MAPE values are reduced by approximately 11% compared to existing benchmark models. The proposed method demonstrates significant advantages in both prediction accuracy and stability.