arXiv:2602.12408v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Identifying systematic patterns in seismicity that precede large earthquakes remains a central challenge in statistical seismology. In this work, we present a methodological framework for detecting spatiotemporal anomalies in seismicity using the evolution of gridded b-values. Focusing on the Japanese subduction zone, we construct daily b-value fields on a fine spatial grid by aggregating local seismicity over moving time windows, yielding a continuous 2+1D representation of seismic-state evolution.
We formulate the problem as a binary classification task in which spatiotemporal blocks extracted from these $b$-value fields are labeled according to the occurrence of a target earthquake with Mw $geq 5$ in the central region within the next day. To model this data, we introduce a hybrid deep-learning architecture that combines a spatial convolutional encoder with a temporal convolutional network, enabling joint learning of spatial structure and temporal dynamics. A progressive meta-epoch training scheme is employed, in which the model is iteratively updated using a time-forward strategy that mirrors operational deployment and mitigates issues related to nonstationarity.
This paper is strictly methodological in scope. It describes the construction of b-value fields, the spatiotemporal sampling strategy, the network architecture, and the progressive training and internal validation framework used for model development and parameter selection.