Energies, Vol. 19, Pages 1369: Risk Assessment of Distribution Network Operation Based on Generalized Load

Energies, Vol. 19, Pages 1369: Risk Assessment of Distribution Network Operation Based on Generalized Load

Energies doi: 10.3390/en19051369

Authors:
Ying Wang
Qikai Zhao
Mingshen Wang
Jiamin Lv
Manqian Yu
Yi Ru

With the widespread use of distributed generation and electric vehicles, the uncertainty of distribution network operation is increased, challenging risk assessment. This paper proposes a generalized load modeling and risk assessment method based on GNG–Informer–WOA. GNG adaptively clusters load curves to identify typical patterns and noise; WOA optimizes Informer’s hyperparameters for high-precision prediction. An index system covering voltage out-of-limit, regulation capacity, and new energy consumption risks is established, with weights determined by fusing AHP and PCA via game theory. Case studies on the improved IEEE 33-bus system show the method effectively characterizes generalized load characteristics and accurately evaluates risks under different scenarios, supporting safe operation.