Energies, Vol. 19, Pages 1362: The European Union’s Energy Security Challenges: Import Dependency, Volatility, and Differences Across Member States
Energies doi: 10.3390/en19051362
Authors:
László Török
This study examines the evolution of the European Union’s (EU) energy security and import dependence over the period 2014–2023, shaped by global energy price shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia’s war against Ukraine. This research aims to explore how the structure of energy imports, domestic production capacities, and the composition of electricity generation shape the vulnerability of EU Member States. It highlights that energy is not only an economic input but also a determinant of social stability and political space. The analysis is based on Eurostat data for 27 Member States. This study combines several methods: panel regression to explore the structural determinants of energy dependence, absolute and relative volatility indicators to measure exposure to shocks, and K-means clustering to map heterogeneity across Member States. The comparison between the pre-2020 and post-2020 periods serves as a robustness check. The results point to three main conclusions. First, natural gas and oil imports remain the primary source of dependency, while domestic electricity generation and balanced gas supply mitigate vulnerability. Second, based on volatility, smaller Member States—particularly the Baltic States and Malta—are disproportionately exposed to shocks. Third, Member States can be grouped into three clusters, although the post-2020 crisis has partly rearranged the grouping of countries. The policy lesson is clear: reducing energy dependency requires diversification, targeted support for smaller Member States, strengthening crisis management capacities, and accelerating the green transition. Energy security and sustainability are not contradictory but mutually reinforcing objectives that will determine the future resilience of the EU.